Reds (-125) at Mariners (+115)
Over/Under: 9.0 (-105/-115)

Game Pick: Reds (Probablity Correct: 68.35%) INCORRECT
Over/Under Pick: OVER (Probablity Correct: 58.39%) INCORRECT

FinalRHE
Reds380
Mariners440
Last simulation of 10000 runs updated Sep 10, 2019 10:32:24 EST
Starting lineup confirmed
Prob Away Team Wins: 68.35%
Prob Home Team Wins: 31.65%
Average Comb Score: 11.07
Median Comb Score: 11.00
Std Comb Score: 4.95
Prob Over: 58.39%
Prob Under: 41.61%

Mariners Predicted to Fall at Home to Reds Despite Austin Nola's Effort

Tue, Sep 10, 2019 | Emma Botos

  

Trevor Bauer
Erik Daniel Drost on Flickr (Original version) UCinternational (Crop) License

September 10, 2019 -- The Mariners under perform at home with a 68.32% chance to lose against the Reds based on our model.

The hosting Mariners have Justus Sheffield in the rotation against the Reds's pitcher Trevor Bauer. Our model forecasts the Mariners pitcher will have an outing for 6.235 innings, allowing 3.199 earned runs, with a 3.097 walks. Trevor Bauer is estimated to have 2.197 earned runs, 21.993 outs, and 7.822 strike outs.

Austin Nola, Mariners's top hitter, will slug it out against Eugenio Suarez in today's game. The Mariners's Austin Nola is estimated to score 0.547 runs, 0.591 RBIs and have a 0.324 OBP. Based on the Snoozle MLB model, Eugenio Suarez is predicted to bat for 0.284 with 1.017 RBIs and 0.825 runs scored.

The Reds are the best value for the money line based on the -125 odds and a forecasted 68.32% win estimate. Based on the prediction model's over 52.27% likelihood and -105 odds, the over line with 9.0 runs is the best value.

Posted at Tue, September 10, 2019 13:05:00 UTC


Reds Predicted Hitters Performance

PlayerABRHRBIBBAVGOBPSLG
Alex Blandino (DH)4.390.751.200.360.650.2680.3810.337
Joey Votto (1B)4.440.841.280.570.680.2840.3800.446
Eugenio Suarez (3B)4.450.951.321.090.520.2910.3750.614
Aristides Aquino (RF)4.490.981.431.330.370.3120.3720.734
Jose Iglesias (SS)4.620.631.510.670.170.3210.3490.461
Phillip Ervin (CF)4.260.641.360.680.380.3120.3780.543
Freddy Galvis (2B)4.370.571.320.720.240.2950.3300.498
Jose Peraza (LF)4.170.481.120.480.210.2620.3150.382
Tucker Barnhart (C)3.740.560.950.490.590.2490.3530.406

Mariners Predicted Hitters Performance

PlayerABRHRBIBBAVGOBPSLG
Dee Gordon (2B)4.660.431.240.370.170.2610.2870.342
Austin Nola (1B)4.320.581.110.550.350.2510.3150.452
Kyle Seager (3B)4.140.570.980.600.440.2280.3080.461
Tom Murphy (C)4.290.581.140.740.210.2590.2960.528
Dan Vogelbach (DH)3.670.530.760.510.720.2030.3330.437
Kyle Lewis (RF)3.920.390.950.380.330.2360.3000.381
Tim Lopes (LF)3.660.360.920.290.490.2460.3390.333
Mallex Smith (CF)3.720.330.830.340.290.2170.2850.326
Dylan Moore (SS)3.490.410.710.390.370.1980.2930.366

Reds Pitching Predicted Performance

PlayerOutsKBBHBPERIPW %
Trevor Bauer21.927.732.710.342.306.7667.36%

Mariners Pitching Predicted Performance

PlayerOutsKBBHBPERIPW %
Justus Sheffield20.160.002.820.493.386.1729.75%

Reds Lose by a Run to Mariners, 3-4

Wed, Sep 11, 2019 | Emma Botos

  

Trevor Bauer
Erik Daniel Drost on Flickr (Original version) UCinternational (Crop) License

September 10, 2019 -- The Reds had a narrow loss to the Mariners 3 to 4 on the road.

Starting on the road, Trevor Bauer's performance could not help the Reds. The Mariners had 8 strikeouts against Trevor Bauer. A 4.55 ERA and 0.308 OBP in the appearance against the Mariners. Reds's starter allowed 3 hits and 3 walks.

Mariners were led on hitting by Tom Murphy. The hitter had a 0.310 OBP with 4 at bats. In the game, he had a 0.276 batting average. He had 0 Ks at the plate against the Reds. The Mariners hitter had 0 RBI and scored 0 runs in the home outing. Leading the team in slugging for the game, he had a 0.556 slugging percentage.

Slugger Phillip Ervin could not achieve the Reds road win over the Mariners's pitching. The hitter gave up 0 Ks. Leading the team in slugging for the season, Phillip Ervin had a 0.508 slugging percentage. With 4 at bats, Phillip Ervin had a 0.350 OBP. In the game, he had a batting average of 0.290. The Reds hitter had 0 RBI and scored 1 run on the road.

Posted at Wed, September 11, 2019 13:04:53 UTC


Reds Hitters Performance

PlayerABRRBIAVGOBPSLG
Alex Blandino (DH)2000.3080.5450.385
Joey Votto (1B)3000.2630.3560.413
Eugenio Suarez (3B)2000.2680.3470.566
Aristides Aquino (RF)4000.2880.3440.655
Jose Iglesias (SS)4000.2890.3160.413
Phillip Ervin (CF)4100.2900.3500.508
Freddy Galvis (2B)4010.2320.2600.389
Jose Peraza (LF)2000.2430.2900.356
Tucker Barnhart (C)3100.2300.3290.372

Mariners Hitters Performance

PlayerABRRBIAVGOBPSLG
Dee Gordon (2B)4000.2810.3050.369
Austin Nola (1B)2100.2650.3370.475
Kyle Seager (3B)3120.2470.3290.506
Tom Murphy (C)4000.2760.3100.556
Dan Vogelbach (DH)3000.2130.3440.460
Kyle Lewis (RF)3110.3330.3331.333
Tim Lopes (LF)2000.2580.3500.348
Mallex Smith (CF)3000.2320.3030.348
Dylan Moore (SS)2110.2140.3130.400