Advertisement
Reds (-125) at Mariners (+115)
Over/Under: 9.0 (-105/-115)
Game Pick: Reds (Probablity Correct: 68.35%) INCORRECT
Over/Under Pick: OVER (Probablity Correct: 58.39%) INCORRECT
| Final | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reds | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Mariners | 4 | 4 | 0 |
Last simulation of 10000 runs updated Sep 10, 2019 10:32:24 EST
Starting lineup confirmed
Prob Away Team Wins: 68.35%
Prob Home Team Wins: 31.65%
Average Comb Score: 11.07
Median Comb Score: 11.00
Std Comb Score: 4.95
Prob Over: 58.39%
Prob Under: 41.61%
Mariners Predicted to Fall at Home to Reds Despite Austin Nola's Effort
Tue, Sep 10, 2019 | Emma Botos
Trevor Bauer
Erik Daniel Drost on Flickr (Original version) UCinternational (Crop) License
September 10, 2019 -- The Mariners under perform at home with a 68.32% chance to lose against the Reds based on our model.
The hosting Mariners have Justus Sheffield in the rotation against the Reds's pitcher Trevor Bauer. Our model forecasts the Mariners pitcher will have an outing for 6.235 innings, allowing 3.199 earned runs, with a 3.097 walks. Trevor Bauer is estimated to have 2.197 earned runs, 21.993 outs, and 7.822 strike outs.
Austin Nola, Mariners's top hitter, will slug it out against Eugenio Suarez in today's game. The Mariners's Austin Nola is estimated to score 0.547 runs, 0.591 RBIs and have a 0.324 OBP. Based on the Snoozle MLB model, Eugenio Suarez is predicted to bat for 0.284 with 1.017 RBIs and 0.825 runs scored.
The Reds are the best value for the money line based on the -125 odds and a forecasted 68.32% win estimate. Based on the prediction model's over 52.27% likelihood and -105 odds, the over line with 9.0 runs is the best value.
Posted at Tue, September 10, 2019 13:05:00 UTC
Reds Predicted Hitters Performance
| Player | AB | R | H | RBI | BB | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Blandino (DH) | 4.39 | 0.75 | 1.20 | 0.36 | 0.65 | 0.268 | 0.381 | 0.337 |
| Joey Votto (1B) | 4.44 | 0.84 | 1.28 | 0.57 | 0.68 | 0.284 | 0.380 | 0.446 |
| Eugenio Suarez (3B) | 4.45 | 0.95 | 1.32 | 1.09 | 0.52 | 0.291 | 0.375 | 0.614 |
| Aristides Aquino (RF) | 4.49 | 0.98 | 1.43 | 1.33 | 0.37 | 0.312 | 0.372 | 0.734 |
| Jose Iglesias (SS) | 4.62 | 0.63 | 1.51 | 0.67 | 0.17 | 0.321 | 0.349 | 0.461 |
| Phillip Ervin (CF) | 4.26 | 0.64 | 1.36 | 0.68 | 0.38 | 0.312 | 0.378 | 0.543 |
| Freddy Galvis (2B) | 4.37 | 0.57 | 1.32 | 0.72 | 0.24 | 0.295 | 0.330 | 0.498 |
| Jose Peraza (LF) | 4.17 | 0.48 | 1.12 | 0.48 | 0.21 | 0.262 | 0.315 | 0.382 |
| Tucker Barnhart (C) | 3.74 | 0.56 | 0.95 | 0.49 | 0.59 | 0.249 | 0.353 | 0.406 |
Mariners Predicted Hitters Performance
| Player | AB | R | H | RBI | BB | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dee Gordon (2B) | 4.66 | 0.43 | 1.24 | 0.37 | 0.17 | 0.261 | 0.287 | 0.342 |
| Austin Nola (1B) | 4.32 | 0.58 | 1.11 | 0.55 | 0.35 | 0.251 | 0.315 | 0.452 |
| Kyle Seager (3B) | 4.14 | 0.57 | 0.98 | 0.60 | 0.44 | 0.228 | 0.308 | 0.461 |
| Tom Murphy (C) | 4.29 | 0.58 | 1.14 | 0.74 | 0.21 | 0.259 | 0.296 | 0.528 |
| Dan Vogelbach (DH) | 3.67 | 0.53 | 0.76 | 0.51 | 0.72 | 0.203 | 0.333 | 0.437 |
| Kyle Lewis (RF) | 3.92 | 0.39 | 0.95 | 0.38 | 0.33 | 0.236 | 0.300 | 0.381 |
| Tim Lopes (LF) | 3.66 | 0.36 | 0.92 | 0.29 | 0.49 | 0.246 | 0.339 | 0.333 |
| Mallex Smith (CF) | 3.72 | 0.33 | 0.83 | 0.34 | 0.29 | 0.217 | 0.285 | 0.326 |
| Dylan Moore (SS) | 3.49 | 0.41 | 0.71 | 0.39 | 0.37 | 0.198 | 0.293 | 0.366 |
Reds Pitching Predicted Performance
| Player | Outs | K | BB | HBP | ER | IP | W % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Bauer | 21.92 | 7.73 | 2.71 | 0.34 | 2.30 | 6.76 | 67.36% |
Mariners Pitching Predicted Performance
| Player | Outs | K | BB | HBP | ER | IP | W % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justus Sheffield | 20.16 | 0.00 | 2.82 | 0.49 | 3.38 | 6.17 | 29.75% |
Reds Lose by a Run to Mariners, 3-4
Wed, Sep 11, 2019 | Emma Botos
Trevor Bauer
Erik Daniel Drost on Flickr (Original version) UCinternational (Crop) License
September 10, 2019 -- The Reds had a narrow loss to the Mariners 3 to 4 on the road.
Starting on the road, Trevor Bauer's performance could not help the Reds. The Mariners had 8 strikeouts against Trevor Bauer. A 4.55 ERA and 0.308 OBP in the appearance against the Mariners. Reds's starter allowed 3 hits and 3 walks.
Mariners were led on hitting by Tom Murphy. The hitter had a 0.310 OBP with 4 at bats. In the game, he had a 0.276 batting average. He had 0 Ks at the plate against the Reds. The Mariners hitter had 0 RBI and scored 0 runs in the home outing. Leading the team in slugging for the game, he had a 0.556 slugging percentage.
Slugger Phillip Ervin could not achieve the Reds road win over the Mariners's pitching. The hitter gave up 0 Ks. Leading the team in slugging for the season, Phillip Ervin had a 0.508 slugging percentage. With 4 at bats, Phillip Ervin had a 0.350 OBP. In the game, he had a batting average of 0.290. The Reds hitter had 0 RBI and scored 1 run on the road.
Posted at Wed, September 11, 2019 13:04:53 UTC
Reds Hitters Performance
| Player | AB | R | RBI | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Blandino (DH) | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.308 | 0.545 | 0.385 |
| Joey Votto (1B) | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.263 | 0.356 | 0.413 |
| Eugenio Suarez (3B) | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.268 | 0.347 | 0.566 |
| Aristides Aquino (RF) | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.288 | 0.344 | 0.655 |
| Jose Iglesias (SS) | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.289 | 0.316 | 0.413 |
| Phillip Ervin (CF) | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0.290 | 0.350 | 0.508 |
| Freddy Galvis (2B) | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0.232 | 0.260 | 0.389 |
| Jose Peraza (LF) | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.243 | 0.290 | 0.356 |
| Tucker Barnhart (C) | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0.230 | 0.329 | 0.372 |
Mariners Hitters Performance
| Player | AB | R | RBI | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dee Gordon (2B) | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.281 | 0.305 | 0.369 |
| Austin Nola (1B) | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0.265 | 0.337 | 0.475 |
| Kyle Seager (3B) | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0.247 | 0.329 | 0.506 |
| Tom Murphy (C) | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.276 | 0.310 | 0.556 |
| Dan Vogelbach (DH) | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.213 | 0.344 | 0.460 |
| Kyle Lewis (RF) | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.333 | 1.333 |
| Tim Lopes (LF) | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.258 | 0.350 | 0.348 |
| Mallex Smith (CF) | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.232 | 0.303 | 0.348 |
| Dylan Moore (SS) | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0.214 | 0.313 | 0.400 |