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Mets (-200) at Royals (+180)
Over/Under: 8.5 (-110/-110)

Game Pick: Mets (Probablity Correct: 68.24%) CORRECT
Over/Under Pick: UNDER (Probablity Correct: 59.02%) CORRECT

FinalRHE
Mets4111
Royals140
Last simulation of 10000 runs updated Aug 17, 2019 08:31:54 EST
Starting lineup confirmed
Prob Away Team Wins: 68.24%
Prob Home Team Wins: 31.76%
Average Comb Score: 7.99
Median Comb Score: 7.00
Std Comb Score: 4.02
Prob Over: 40.98%
Prob Under: 59.02%

Royals Predicted to Fall at Home to Mets Despite Jorge Soler's Effort

Sat, Aug 17, 2019 | Emma Botos

  

Jacob deGrom of the New York Mets, July 31, 2016.
D. Benjamin Miller License

August 17, 2019 -- The Royals have a 72.38% likelihood to fall to the Mets with a based on our model.

Likely starting pitcher Jake Junis for the Royals will be matched up with the Mets probable starter Jacob deGrom. Our model forecasts the Royals pitcher will have an outing for 6.489 innings, allowing 2.691 earned runs, with a 2.717 walks. The Mets starting pitcher is forecasted by our model to throw for 23.495 outs, allow 1.621 earned runs, and a 0.055 probability of a complete game.

In a hitting matchup, Jorge Soler of the Royals will see who has the better stick against the visiting slugger Pete Alonso. Based on the Snoozle model, Jorge Soler RF is predicted to have 0.591 RBIs and score 0.418 runs over an estimated 3.786 at-bats. Pete Alonso is forecast to bring in 0.875 RBIs and 0.792 runs scored, with an 0.381 OBP and 1.238 Ks.

The Mets are the best value for the money line based on the -210 odds and a forecasted 72.38% win estimate. For this game, the under is the best value; the model predicted a 58.38% over estimate and -110 line odds for 8.5 runs.

Posted at Sat, August 17, 2019 13:06:34 UTC


Mets Predicted Hitters Performance

PlayerABRHRBIBBAVGOBPSLG
Amed Rosario (DH)4.760.631.430.510.270.2950.3320.461
Joe Panik (2B)4.530.541.200.350.380.2590.3190.337
Pete Alonso (1B)4.090.791.120.820.560.2680.3770.601
Michael Conforto (RF)4.010.631.060.680.610.2580.3680.491
Wilson Ramos (C)4.140.491.220.660.470.2880.3610.432
Todd Frazier (3B)4.050.440.990.580.350.2380.3140.428
Luis Guillorme (SS)4.020.320.920.340.380.2250.2890.299
Juan Lagares (CF)3.900.350.840.290.330.2100.2780.289
Aaron Altherr (LF)3.630.440.650.390.500.1750.2780.346

Royals Predicted Hitters Performance

PlayerABRHRBIBBAVGOBPSLG
Whit Merrifield (2B)4.270.471.130.330.290.2580.3090.417
Alex Gordon (LF)4.080.410.900.300.300.2140.2830.340
Hunter Dozier (RF)3.950.470.990.520.410.2440.3180.479
Jorge Soler (DH)3.820.430.850.580.410.2190.3020.463
Cheslor Cuthbert (3B)4.000.270.920.400.170.2250.2600.344
Brett Phillips (CF)3.810.200.560.220.250.1430.2000.242
Ryan O'Hearn (1B)3.600.230.530.230.360.1420.2200.251
Meibrys Viloria (C)3.590.250.720.180.230.1940.2400.309
Nicky Lopez (SS)3.550.200.640.170.150.1750.2100.230

Mets Pitching Predicted Performance

PlayerOutsKBBHBPERIPW %
Jacob deGrom23.245.812.190.261.737.1868.25%

Royals Pitching Predicted Performance

PlayerOutsKBBHBPERIPW %
Jake Junis21.275.573.000.392.596.5431.13%

Royals Fall to Mets Despite Hunter Dozier's Effort, 1-4

Sun, Aug 18, 2019 | Emma Botos

  

Hunter Dozier
Minda Haas Kuhlmann on Flickr (Original version) UCinternational (Crop) License

August 17, 2019 -- Despite valiant effort from Hunter Dozier at the plate, the Royals could not beat the Mets.

In the loss at home, Hunter Dozier was not able to help the Royals get the run needed against the Mets. At the plate, the slugger had 0 strikeouts. He had a game batting average of 0.288. The team's leading slugger had a 0.558 slugging percentage in the game. He had a 0.366 OBP with 4 at bats. The Royals hitter had 0 RBI and scored 0 runs in the home outing.

Pete Alonso led the Mets's effort on the road against the Royals's pitching. The Mets hitter had 2 RBI and scored 0 runs in the road outing. He had a 0.370 OBP with 5 at bats. At the plate, he had 0 strikeouts. He had a game slugging percentage of 0.594. He had a 0.266 batting average in the game.

The Royals starter Jake Junis could not led the defense to allow the offense to pull off the win. He gave up 3 earned runs over 6.1 innings pitched. The Royals hurler threw for 7 hits and 1 walk allowed. A 4.78 ERA and 0.331 OBP in the appearance against Mets.

Posted at Sun, August 18, 2019 02:31:35 UTC


Mets Hitters Performance

PlayerABRRBIAVGOBPSLG
Amed Rosario (DH)3000.2880.3270.448
Joe Panik (2B)3010.2380.3110.317
Pete Alonso (1B)5020.2660.3700.594
Michael Conforto (RF)3000.2560.3650.488
Wilson Ramos (C)5000.2810.3490.417
Todd Frazier (3B)4000.2330.3050.419
Luis Guillorme (SS)4100.1900.2270.286
Juan Lagares (CF)4210.2180.2820.303
Aaron Altherr (LF)3100.0880.1450.175

Royals Hitters Performance

PlayerABRRBIAVGOBPSLG
Whit Merrifield (2B)4000.3010.3540.480
Alex Gordon (LF)3100.2580.3320.405
Hunter Dozier (RF)4000.2880.3660.558
Jorge Soler (DH)4010.2610.3530.553
Cheslor Cuthbert (3B)4000.2650.3040.406
Brett Phillips (CF)2000.0000.2860.000
Ryan O'Hearn (1B)3000.1740.2640.306
Meibrys Viloria (C)3000.2200.2700.339
Nicky Lopez (SS)3000.2230.2640.292