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Cardinals (-110) at Reds (+100)
Over/Under: 9.0 (-115/-105)

Game Pick: Reds (Probablity Correct: 53.86%) CORRECT
Over/Under Pick: UNDER (Probablity Correct: 57.80%) CORRECT

FinalRHE
Cardinals170
Reds6111
Last simulation of 10000 runs updated Aug 17, 2019 07:32:22 EST
Starting lineup confirmed
Prob Away Team Wins: 46.14%
Prob Home Team Wins: 53.86%
Average Comb Score: 9.18
Median Comb Score: 9.00
Std Comb Score: 4.33
Prob Over: 42.20%
Prob Under: 57.80%

Marcell Ozuna's Hitting is Expected to Not Be Enough to Pull the Cardinals Over the Home Underdog Reds

Sat, Aug 17, 2019 | Emma Botos

  

Miles Mikolas pitching for the St.Louis Cardinals in 2018.
Johnmaxmena2 License

August 17, 2019 -- On the road, the Cardinals has a 57.81% chance to lose to the Reds from our Snoozle montecarlo model.

Likely starting pitcher for the Cardinals, Miles Mikolas, will be paired with the hosting Reds's pitcher Anthony DeSclafani. The Snoozle model estimates the Cardinals pitcher will have an outing for 6.593 innings, allowing 2.600 earned runs, with 2.280 walks. The Reds starting hurler is predicted to throw for 21.989 outs, allow 2.225 earned runs, and a 0.015 probability of a complete game.

The Cardinals's Marcell Ozuna and the Reds's Aristides Aquino will slug it out from the plate. According to our game model, Marcell Ozuna is estimated to have 0.625 RBIs and score 0.566 runs over an estimated 4.059 at-bats. Aristides Aquino is forecast to bat for 0.295 with 0.988 RBIs and 0.768 runs scored.

For this matchup Reds are the best value on the money line bets with on the +100 home ML odds and a forecasted 57.81% chance to win. For this game, the under is the best value; the model predicted a 55.88% over estimate and -105 line odds for 9.0 runs.

Posted at Sat, August 17, 2019 13:06:34 UTC


Cardinals Predicted Hitters Performance

PlayerABRHRBIBBAVGOBPSLG
Dexter Fowler (CF)4.260.611.050.410.540.2410.3370.414
Tommy Edman (RF)4.610.491.230.450.160.2610.2890.409
Paul Goldschmidt (1B)4.190.581.080.590.470.2510.3260.449
Marcell Ozuna (LF)4.080.591.040.640.490.2510.3300.495
Matt Wieters (C)4.160.510.940.640.280.2210.2740.441
Kolten Wong (2B)3.830.441.070.370.400.2710.3560.400
Matt Carpenter (3B)3.690.370.770.380.520.2050.3090.351
Yairo Munoz (SS)3.990.321.030.370.140.2540.2820.355
Miles Mikolas (P)3.870.300.820.350.090.2070.2200.301

Reds Predicted Hitters Performance

PlayerABRHRBIBBAVGOBPSLG
Nick Senzel (CF)4.540.601.190.350.350.2550.3080.416
Josh VanMeter (1B)4.270.661.190.440.490.2720.3540.449
Freddy Galvis (2B)4.500.581.170.580.210.2560.2880.429
Aristides Aquino (RF)4.230.811.281.030.340.2950.3490.669
Phillip Ervin (LF)4.070.551.350.540.350.3250.3870.541
Tucker Barnhart (C)3.820.440.850.470.540.2180.3180.370
Jose Iglesias (SS)4.110.371.160.460.150.2760.3040.396
Jose Peraza (3B)3.910.330.900.380.160.2250.2720.331
Anthony DeSclafani (P)3.990.300.950.390.000.2320.2280.303

Cardinals Pitching Predicted Performance

PlayerOutsKBBHBPERIPW %
Miles Mikolas21.586.572.070.252.566.6645.75%

Reds Pitching Predicted Performance

PlayerOutsKBBHBPERIPW %
Anthony DeSclafani21.987.042.460.282.236.7652.79%

Cardinals Hurler Miles Mikolas Effort Not Enough Against Reds, 1-6

Sun, Aug 18, 2019 | Emma Botos

  

Miles Mikolas pitching for the St.Louis Cardinals in 2018.
Johnmaxmena2 License

August 17, 2019 -- The visiting Cardinals cannot hang with Reds, 1 to 6.

Miles Mikolas's start did not help them on the road. The pitcher allowed 0.311 OBP. The hurler gave up 5 earned runs in 5.0 innings. Throwing 59 strikes in a 89 pitch outing for 5 strikeouts. Cardinals's starter allowed 7 hits and 2 walks.

Even Marcell Ozuna could not help Cardinals on offense against the Reds. He had 0 Ks in the game. In 4 at bats, the hitter had a 0.339 OBP. He had a game slugging percentage of 0.506. His team's best hitter had 0 RBI and scored 0 runs in the game. He had a 0.259 batting average in the game.

Starting at home, Anthony DeSclafani helped lead the Reds to a win. The Reds starter allowed 5 hits and 3 walks. The pitcher allowed 1 earned runs over 5.0 innings pitched. The Reds pitcher had a 0.317 OBP for his appearance. Throwing 55 strikes in a 89 pitch outing for 4 strikeouts.

Posted at Sun, August 18, 2019 02:31:35 UTC


Cardinals Hitters Performance

PlayerABRRBIAVGOBPSLG
Dexter Fowler (CF)4000.2500.3470.428
Tommy Edman (RF)4000.2620.2940.407
Paul Goldschmidt (1B)4000.2580.3330.467
Marcell Ozuna (LF)4000.2590.3390.506
Matt Wieters (C)4000.2220.2710.444
Kolten Wong (2B)3000.2770.3600.407
Matt Carpenter (3B)2110.2160.3250.371
Yairo Munoz (SS)4000.2760.3020.375
Miles Mikolas (P)2000.1560.1560.178

Reds Hitters Performance

PlayerABRRBIAVGOBPSLG
Nick Senzel (CF)5110.2680.3210.446
Josh VanMeter (1B)2100.2930.3830.472
Freddy Galvis (2B)3110.5290.5000.706
Aristides Aquino (RF)4130.3450.3900.964
Phillip Ervin (LF)4100.3330.3940.550
Tucker Barnhart (C)3000.2280.3310.384
Jose Iglesias (SS)3010.2930.3220.416
Jose Peraza (3B)4000.2370.2820.349
Anthony DeSclafani (P)2000.1540.1540.154